Red Cross/ Red Crescent Climate Centre

Guidance and Resources on Global, Pacific and Asia La Niña updates 17 November 2011

22/11/2011 - by IRI/Climate Centre

Important Guidance and Resources for Forecast-Based Decision Making

Download here a document offering further background information on La Niña, seasonal forecast interpretation, connecting forecasts with appropriate actions, and resources for forecast monitoring and decision-making support.

November 2011 La Niña updates

La Niña redeveloped in August and is now of weak to moderate strength, and so is likely to affect rainfall patterns in some areas. The La Niña is likely to remain until about February 2012. In some regions, unusual rainfall patterns related to this weak-moderate La Niña event are forecast (see map and forecast interpretation below). No two La Niña events are exactly the same, and so one should not automatically expect impacts this year to be similar to last year. We recommend monitoring seasonal forecasts on a monthly basis for updates on areas where there are enhanced chances of receiving too much or too little rainfall. IRI’s next forecast update is scheduled for 21 December 2011 and can be found at: http://iri.columbia.edu/ifrc/forecast/3munusualprecip It is also important to monitor shorter-range weather forecasts to anticipate specific weather events (see accompanying attachment for some regional monitoring resources).

Please find below the latest La Niña updates based on the IRI seasonal forecasts:

  1. Global
  2. Pacific
  3. Asia