Red Cross/ Red Crescent Climate Centre

El Niño: Briefing Note on current status and latest El Niño updates

02/10/2012 - by IRI/Climate Centre

El Niño Briefing Note: Current Status and Overview of possible effects

What is happening?

As of mid-September 2012, further development of the possible El Niño event is still unclear. The current patterns may weaken, but scientists think they are likely to continue to grow into a weak -strength El Niño event. This would impact disaster and health risks in many regions over the coming year, albeit not as forcefully as in a really strong El Niño event. Scientists are closely monitoring how global rainfall will respond to this weak event, and further information will appear in seasonal forecasts over the next few months. This note will be updated monthly, and can be found on the Climate Centre website. Download here the Briefing Note.

Please find below the latest regional El Niño updates based on the IRI seasonal forecasts:

  • Global Seasonal Forecasts, October-December 2012
  • Pacific Seasonal Forecasts, October-December 2012
  • Africa Seasonal Forecasts, October-December 2012
  • Asia Seasonal Forecasts, October-December 2012 
  • Americas Seasonal Forecasts, October-December 2012

Guidance and Resources for Forecast-Based Decision Making

Download a document offering further background information on El Niño, seasonal forecast interpretation, connecting forecasts with appropriate actions, and resources for forecast monitoring and decision-making support, in Spanish