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Attribution

Is it climate change or just weather?

When an extreme-weather event occurs, people often ask: Is climate change to blame? For decades, climate scientists have answered that question in general terms: that as the planet warms, we can expect many such weather events to become more frequent and extreme.

But in recent years advances in attribution science have allowed researchers to answer the question in much greater detail.

Founded in 2015 by Dr Friederike Otto and the late Dr Geert Jan van Oldenborgh, the World Weather Attribution (WWA) scientific partnership, which includes the Climate Centre, quantifies how climate change influences the intensity and likelihood of a particular extreme-weather event; and it sometimes finds it has not.

To encourage actions that will make communities and countries more resilient to future extreme weather, WWA studies also evaluate how existing human vulnerability and exposure may have worsened the impacts of the event.

The results are made public as soon as they are available, often weeks or even days after the event, to inform discussions about climate change and extreme weather.

Attribution science and the media

Few areas of work that the Climate Centre engages in generate more interest from the international media than the attribution of the influence of climate on extreme events. Here are just a few recent examples of media coverage of WWA studies (2023 unless otherwise specified):

Reuters and the drought in the Horn of Africa
Financial Times and the heatwaves in North America and Europe
Independent and the early-season heat in Asia
South China Morning Post on heat in China
New Zealand Herald on Cyclone Gabrielle
New York Times and the 2022 Pakistan superflood
The BBC and the 2021 floods in Europe

 

 

The 2023 northern summer
Attribution study

The 2023 northern summer

The exceptional heat in the 2023 northern summer should no longer be seen as an unusual event, the WWA group concluded, and future heatwaves will be hotter and even more common if emissions are not rapidly cut. Events like these – once virtually impossible – can now be expected approximately every 15 years in North America, every ten years in southern Europe, and every five years in China. Emissions from human activity made the seasonal heatwaves 2.5°C hotter in Europe, 2°C hotter in North America, and 1°C in China.

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Partners

WWA is a partnership between experts from the Climate Centre, Imperial College London, the Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute (KNMI), and the Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l’Environnement to conduct rapid attribution studies of extreme events.

The WWA network includes a wide range of scientists from around the world who join studies relevant to their geographic and thematic expertise.

WWA co-founder Dr Friederike ‘Fredi’ Otto is Senior Lecturer in Climate Science at the Grantham Institute for Climate Change and the Environment, one of Imperial College London’s six hubs for research, innovation and influence on global challenges.

KNMI’s Director (from February 2023) is Professor Maarten van Aalst, the former director of the Climate Centre; scientists Sarah Kew and Sjoukje Philip are WWA leads there.

Finally, Robert Vautard, the Director of Institut Pierre-Simon Laplace and newly appointed co-chair of the IPCC working group on the science of climate change for its seventh assessment of the global climate, rounds out the WWA core team (below, a group of WWA scientists meeting in Paris, June 2023).

 

World Weather Attribution FAQ

Science

The method used to conduct an attribution study consists of eight steps, described in detail in the scientific paper linked below. The first is to select and precisely define the extreme event to be studied, which provides a framework for the analysis.

Researchers determine the geographical boundaries of the most affected area, the best metrics to quantify the meteorological extreme such as maximum temperature and rainfall, and the duration of the event.

The Climate Centre’s role is chiefly to monitor potentially extreme events, with the advantage of insights gained from the Red Cross Red Crescent network in the field, helping to trigger studies using pre-established thresholds, then contributing to the definition of events and findings on vulnerability and exposure.

In 2020 the prestigious MIT Technology Review included WWA climate attribution as one of its ten “breakthrough technologies”, which matters because it provides “a clearer sense of how climate change is worsening the weather, and what we’ll need to do to prepare.”

(New York-based Roop Singh, pictured here, is the Climate Centre’s leading expert on attribution. Journalists can arrange interviews with her or her colleagues through media@climatecentre.org.)

How it’s done
Attribution study

2022 West Africa floods

Heavy rain that caused massive flooding in Nigeria, Niger and Chad starting around June 2022 was made 80 times more likely by climate change, according to World Weather Attribution scientists. In Nigeria, the worst affected nation, the floods were described in an IFRC emergency appeal as “the worst in at least a decade, with a widespread impact in 29 of the country’s 36 states.” Nearly 3 million people were reportedly affected and just over 600 died, the IFRC added, with some 2 million displaced.

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2022 West Africa floods
Video

Building capacity for attribution around the world

In this short clip, Fredi reflects on a 2017 learning event in Nairobi, organized by the Kenyan Red Cross, for the Raising Risk Awareness project, since closed. She foresees the gradual development of a ‘global science team’ on attribution.

News story: Kenya drought