Study: Monsoon floods in Pakistan exacerbated by climate change

By the Climate Centre

Human-induced climate change intensified by as much as 15 per cent the recent monsoon rain in Pakistan that the National Disaster Management Authority (NDMA) now says has killed just over 300 people, World Weather Attribution scientists reported in a new rapid study yesterday.

The rain that triggered the floods in northern Pakistan is now common, expected every five years, their study found.

Pakistan’s monsoon starts in late June and ends in September and accounts for as much as 80 per cent of annual rainfall, but frequently causes flooding.

Fifty-five per cent of the fatalities occurred when people’s houses collapsed in the lethal torrents, the NDMA added in its latest sitrep yesterday.

Nearly 3,000 people had been rescued since 26 June in six provinces, with Punjab much the worst affected, and including the twin cities of the capital Islamabad and Rawalpindi.

Flood-resilient houses?

Islamabad-based Fahad Saeed, Senior Climate Scientist at Climate Analytics, who took part in the WWA study, said yesterday: “A record-breaking 48.5°C in northern Pakistan followed by deadly rains in July is yet another stark reminder of what the country is enduring at just 1.3°C of global warming above pre-industrial levels.

“Things will be worse at the Paris Agreement’s temperature target of 1.5°C, but anything beyond this limit would be a death sentence for the poorest and most vulnerable communities in Pakistan.”

In response to heavy rains in Rawalpindi and Islamabad, the Pakistan Red Crescent Society’s Emergency Response Team has been meeting at its national headquarters “to coordinate preparedness and timely action”.

“Half of Pakistan’s urban population lives in fragile settlements where floods collapse homes and cost lives,” said the Climate Centre’s Maja Vahlberg, another member of the WWA team.

“Building flood-resilient houses and avoiding construction in flood zones will help reduce the impacts of heavy monsoon rain.”

PRCS Emergency Response Team members assessing flood damage in Rawalpindi last month. (Photo: PRCS via social media)