Kenya faces worsening drought in last quarter of the year

By the Climate Centre

Kenya faces a “high likelihood of crop failure” as well as depleted pasture, acute water scarcity and the loss of livestock, according to the October–December (OND) seasonal forecast issued last week by the IGAD Climate Prediction and Applications Centre. 

The agency points out that the OND season is a “critical rainfall period” for the Horn of Africa, contributing up to 70 per cent of the annual total in parts of Kenya and Somalia, but different analyses now suggest “an elevated likelihood of below-normal rainfall in OND 2025” in southern Ethiopia, much of Somalia, eastern Kenya, and parts of Tanzania.

There is now a “90 per cent chance of a drought in Kenya”, Ahmed Idris, the Secretary General and CEO of the Kenya Red Cross, said on X/Twitter late last month.

In line with the Kenya Red Cross commitment to anticipatory action, Idris added that he had briefed governors of the country’s 23 officially arid and semi-arid counties “on the need for early action to support communities respond to drought”.

“We cannot wait for livestock to perish before we act. We must act now,” Ahmed Abdullahi Jiir, Chair of the Kenya Council of Governors from all its 47 countries, told the September meeting.

‘People vulnerable to drought can switch rapidly from stable to worse conditions when the October to December rains fail’

In the course of September across seven drought-affected counties, the KRC reports that it reached nearly 18,000 households with food assistance and supported 1,000 with cash or vouchers.

The National Society rehabilitated 46 water sources and provided meals to more than 30,000 children in 103 schools. “The work continues as we stand with communities facing drought,” it said on X/Twitter.

Also in response to the difficult seasonal forecast, the KRC activated its Early Action Protocol for drought, enabling it to carry out agreed actions to support 150,000 people at risk. 

In three priority counties of Kilifi, Kitui and Kwale, these will include fodder and drought-tolerant seeds, rehabilitating water sources, early warning messages, and community outreach.

“Arid and semi-arid counties, being a home for pastoralists mixed with farmers and a host of other populations vulnerable to drought, have previously demonstrated that they can rapidly switch from stable to worse conditions when the October to December rains fail,” said Oscar Lino of the KRC-hosted International Center for Humanitarian Affairs.

The Kenya Red Cross brings safe water to people in Keleswa village, in arid Samburu North constituency, where the main occupation is nomadic pastoralism. On the left is what they had been forced to drink, from their sole workable source within a nearly 40km radius. As part of its response to the ongoing drought, the KRC supported 500 families and a local school with food relief and provided water treatment chemicals. (Photo: KRCV via social media)