Study: Paris Agreement can still help secure a safer climate but a faster shift from fossil fuels is needed

By the Climate Centre

The 2015 Paris Agreement could help the world avoid nearly 60 excessively hot days if countries make good on current plans to cut emissions that would result in warming this century being limited to an estimated 2.6°C, a study out today has found.

But the report by Climate Central and World Weather Attribution warns that even 2.6°C “will still subject future generations to dangerous heat, cause severe health impacts, and widen inequality”.

They call for “stronger commitments and policies to accelerate the transition away from fossil fuels and keep warming well below 2°C”.

Warming has now reached at least 1.3°C, the scientists say, “and with emissions continuing to rise, some political leaders have questioned the effectiveness of the agreement.”

Meanwhile, “[a]daptation finance is limited, and investments in early warning systems and action plans are still limited in many cities and countries.”

‘Make no mistake – we are still heading for a dangerously hot future’

Dr Kristina Dahl, Vice-President for Science at Climate Central, said: “The Paris Agreement is helping many regions of the world avoid some of the worst possible outcomes of climate change.

“But make no mistake – we are still heading for a dangerously hot future. The impacts of recent heatwaves show that many countries are not well prepared to deal with 1.3°C of warming, let alone the 2.6°C of warming projected if – and it’s a big if – countries meet their current emissions reduction pledges.

“Faster, deeper, and more ambitious emission cuts are crucial to ensure future generations live in a safe climate.”

The new study also looks in detail at several recent cases of extreme heat – in southern Europe, West Africa, the Amazon, Asia, Australia, and North and Central America – that “fuelled devastating drought and bushfires, brought cities to a halt, and likely killed tens of thousands of people”.

At 2.6°C, these heatwaves can be expected to be up to 3°C hotter and up to 35 times more likely.

Roop Singh, Head of Urban and Attribution at the Climate Centre, said: “The Paris Agreement is best known for its warming targets, but we’ve also made important progress on adaptation since its signing.

“In the last decade there has been a steady stream of heat action plans and early warning systems. The danger of heat will only increase this century, so it is crucial that every country implements measures that help keep people safe.”

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Carbon dioxide levels in the atmosphere “soared by a record amount to new highs in 2024,” the World Meteorological Organization said yesterday.

The 2025 WMO Greenhouse Gas Bulletin blamed continued emissions of CO2 from human activities and an upsurge from wildfires, as well as reduced absorption by carbon sinks “in what threatens to be a vicious climate cycle”. 

From 2023 to 2024, the global average concentration of CO2 surged by 3.5 parts per million – the largest increase since modern measurement started in 1957; methane and nitrous oxide – the second and third most important greenhouse gases related to human activities – also rose to record levels.

The WMO said it was releasing the bulletin “to provide authoritative scientific information” for the forthcoming COP 30 meeting in Brazil.

A presentation at COP 21 in Paris by CARE International of 196 papier-maché (flood-resistant) ducks painted by French children. A new report by international climate scientists published today says finance for adaptation finance and investments in early warning systems and action plans are still too limited in many countries. (File photo: James Dowson/UNFCCC)