WMO: Predicted El Niño increases chance of 2027 being next record-breaking warm year

By the Climate Centre

Global average temperatures are likely to continue at or near record levels in the next five years, with Arctic temperature anomalies higher than the global average, the UK Met Office says in a new report produced for the World Meteorological Organization and issued Thursday.

The WMO Global Annual to Decadal Climate Update says the world is all but certain (a 91 per cent chance) to see a global temperature temporarily reach more than 1.5°C above the 1850–1900 average for at least one year before 2030; this level was temporarily exceeded in 2024, which was 1.55°C above the pre-industrial baseline.

Met Office scientist Leon Hermanson, update lead author, said earlier this week: “There is an El Niño predicted for the end of 2026, which increases the chances of [2027] being the next record-breaking year.”

Long-term warming?

It is likely (75 per cent chance), the report adds, that the 2026–30 average will be more than 1.5°C above the baseline; the 1.5°C threshold specified in the Paris Agreement refers to long-term warming sustained over an extended period, typically interpreted to mean 20 years.

The UK Met Office is the WMO lead on the climate update, which synthesizes contributions from 13 different agencies, including the Barcelona Supercomputer Centre, the Canadian Centre for Climate Modelling and Analysis, Deutscher Wetterdienst, and the Met Office itself.

Among other key findings, the update says the current (May to September) period could see wetter than average conditions in the Sahel, northern Europe, Alaska and Siberia, and dry anomalies over the Amazon.

There are concerns about likely below-normal June–September 2026 rainfall over Sudan, South Sudan, Ethiopia, western Kenya and Karamoja in Uganda associated with developing El Niño conditions, FEWS NET said last week. Pictured, in the Kori district of Ethiopia’s Afar region in 2024, water shortages forced the closure of both its local school and health post: Ethiopian Red Cross volunteer Kedo Mei checks the status of a local tank installed that year with Finnish Red Cross support along with rainwater harvesting hardware. (File photo: Aki Kolehmainen/Finnish Red Cross)