El Niño 2026–27: ‘No excuse for inaction’

By Sirak Temesgen, Netherlands Red Cross Society

(This article appeared first on the website of the Anticipation Hub. It has been edited here for length.)

In September 2026 the World Meteorological Organization did something it has never done in 50 years of issuing seasonal outlooks: it declared an “exceptionally high likelihood of nearly 100%” that El Niño will persist through February 2027, intensifying into one of the strongest events since 1950.

“El Niño is being supersized before our eyes,” said UN Secretary-General António Guterres. “The science leaves no room for doubt.”

This forecast has held steady, indeed strengthened, for seven consecutive months: from the first warnings issued in February 2026, through to the Horn of Africa climate outlook forum in Kigali in August, and the IGAD ministerial forum on El Niño preparedness in Addis Ababa from 15 to 17 September.

During the latter event, ICPAC stated there is a 90 per cent likelihood of enhanced October–December rainfall over southern Ethiopia, central-to-southern Somalia and north-eastern Kenya, with a high chance of seasonal totals exceeding 400mm across the Lake Victoria basin, Burundi, western Rwanda and western Tanzania.

In southern Africa, the reverse is expected: there is a 70 per cent chance that October–December rainfall deficits will exceed any El Niño year since 1950 across southern Angola, southern Malawi, south-central Mozambique, southern Zambia and Zimbabwe, the IFRC says.

This is, in short, the most confidently predicted El Niño on record. Governments, donors, humanitarians and development actors have no excuse for inaction: we know what is coming.

WMO Secretary-General Celeste Saulo said earlier this month: “This exceptional El Niño demands exceptional preparation and response. We have no time to lose.”

In sub-Saharan Africa, the coming El Niño is arriving in countries that are already contending with multiple challenges. For example, 48.5 million people in eastern Africa require assistance, according to OCHA, while 40.4 million are food-insecure (at IPC Phase 3 or worse), 16.6 million people are internally displaced and 6.1 million are refugees.

There are active cholera outbreaks in at least seven countries, while the risk of Ebola expanding from the Democratic Republic of the Congo persists. At the same time, fuel price spikes of 25 per cent regionally – and 187 per cent in Somalia – are eroding households’ capacity to cope.

History warns us exactly where such combinations can lead. In 1997, an El Niño of similar strength brought widespread flooding across much of eastern Africa during the October–December season, with nearly 3,000 people losing their lives across Ethiopia, Kenya, Somalia and Uganda – the deadliest El Niño-linked flood event on record, according to EM-DAT.

In 2023, a strong El Niño displaced 1.3 million people in Somalia, 633,000 in Ethiopia and 546,000 in Kenya (pictured), with 705 people killed across the region, according to OCHA.

Both events are now explicit references that are informing predictions of what could happen in 2026–27. We are, in effect, being handed the answer in advance.

‘The forecast is as good as forecasting gets. The plans are largely written. The financing mechanisms exist. Every day of delay is a choice – not a gap in knowledge’

Ahead of past El Niño events, forecasts may have come too late to allow for preventative actions. This time, however, the signals have been strong and stable since at least February 2026.

Another development since the last event is the number of plans in place to act early. The IFRC reports that there are 14 early action protocols across the Africa region ready for activation, with two already triggered: one crisis modifier has been activated for floods in Ethiopia and an allocation from the IFRC’s Disaster Response Emergency Fund has reached over 800,000 people with cash, pre-positioned stock and early warning messages.

Governments in Kenya, Rwanda, Somalia, Uganda and elsewhere have contingency plans being finalized or already active. Elsewhere, organizations are already starting to act: partners in Zimbabwe and the Lesotho Red Cross Society have all activated their anticipatory action frameworks in recent weeks.

This time, people know which actions are required to reduce harm – and these actions have been well planned.

One area where progress has been too slow is financing for anticipatory action. The UN’s Central Emergency Response Fund has pre-positioned up to 100 million US dollars for high-risk countries, with over 20 million already disbursed and amounts pre-approved for Ethiopia and Somalia.

Yet humanitarian needs and response plans remain badly underfunded: Somalia’s plan is only 27 per cent funded, South Sudan’s 34.5 per cent and Sudan’s 39.6 per cent, according to OCHA.

The money that would prevent a crisis is a fraction of what will be needed to respond to one — and much of what is available is already earmarked.

The anticipatory actions required to reduce the impacts of El Niño are inexpensive relative to the cost of disaster response. For the flood-prone eastern and southern Africa sub-regions there are several priorities: clear and repair drainage lines and canals before the rains; map and mark highly exposed settlements and riverine areas; restrict movement into, and settlement in, the highest-risk zones; protect water points and other critical infrastructure from floods; pre-position shelter, health and water, sanitation and hygiene supplies in advance.

For the drought-affected areas of the Sahel region and West Africa: rehabilitate and expand water storage and conservation structures; distribute drought-tolerant, short-cycle seed varieties ahead of the planting season; conserve pasture and organize early destocking; support livestock deworming and health services; conflict resolution along migration and grazing corridors so pastoralist movement does not itself become a driver of conflict.
 
None of these require new science. All that is needed is for decision-makers to act on the science already in hand – and quickly.

The forecast is as good as forecasting gets. The plans are largely written. The financing mechanisms exist. Every day of delay is a choice – not a gap in knowledge.

The Kenya Red Cross rescue people cut off by seasonal floods made worse by El Niño in 2024. As of early May that year, the Red Cross said, the rains had caused over 200 fatalities and directly affected more than 340,000 people, with more forecast at that point. East Africa now faces “the most confidently predicted El Niño on record”. (File photo: KRCS via IFRC)