WWA team recommends ‘low-regrets adaptation’ for both wet and dry extremes in Australia

By the Climate Centre

World Weather Attribution climate scientists studying the extreme rainfall that hit eastern Australia late last month, causing widespread floods and taking several lives,  found “no clear trend, as climate models show strong disagreement – some projecting increases, others decreases in heavy rainfall,” according to their study released yesterday.

Australia’s climate is “highly complex” and influenced by a wide range of factors, and earlier research on heavy rainfall in Australia has struggled to identify clear signals of climate change, they added.

But existing scientific evidence also shows that, in general, a warmer atmosphere can hold more moisture, leading to heavier downpours year-round, alongside the risk of longer dry spells that threaten agriculture.

Kimberley Reid, from the University of Melbourne and one of the WWA team, said yesterday: “Like many studies looking at the links between heavy rain and climate change in Australia, the results are murky.

“Some evidence does point to heavier rainfall as the climate warms, but we can’t say for sure that climate change fuelled the May floods.

“We do know that ongoing reliance on fossil fuels … will only make weather events more dangerous in Australia.”

‘Droughts and floods have marked the Australian psyche for generations’

Reid told the UK Guardian newspaper in May, before the latest WWA study: “Droughts and floods have marked the Australian psyche for generations. But the fingerprints of a warming planet are starting to appear as increasing rainfall intensity and drought severity.”

The study was conducted by researchers from universities and meteorological agencies in Australia, the Netherlands, New Zealand, Sweden, the UK and the US.

They recommend “[l]ow-regrets adaptation measures that are beneficial in both wet and dry environments, such as nature-based solutions, water storage and diversification measures, and improved risk-management”. 

As part of its response to the May floods, the Australian Red Cross opened its online Register.Find.Reunite. service and flagged its advice on dealing with damage from wind and water.

Additional emergency teams from across Australia were deployed to support the New South Wales State Emergency Service: on 25 May, as the floodwater began to recede, 32,000 residents of the Mid-North Coast area were still cut off, the agency said. (Photo: SES)