Jamaica braces for direct hit by potentially historic Hurricane Melissa
By the Climate Centre
Jamaicans were Monday preparing for the expected landfall on the south coast overnight of Hurricane Melissa, which has intensified into a Category 5 and which the US National Hurricane Center warns could be the strongest direct landfall on the island nation in the modern record.
As of early today, almost the entire island was bracketed by the cone of probability of Melissa’s track as it turned onto a north-easterly heading (pictured).
“Catastrophic and life-threatening flash flooding and numerous landslides are likely today through Tuesday,” the NHC said early today local time. “Destructive winds, especially in the mountains, will begin by this evening, leading to extensive infrastructural damage, long-lasting power and communication outages, and isolated communities.
“Life-threatening storm surge and damaging waves are expected along the southern coast through Tuesday.”
The Jamaica Meteorological Service said storm surges of up to 13 feet (4 metres) could be expected along the south coast, and the Jamaican government has ordered the immediate evacuation of people in Port Royal, Portland Cottage, Rocky Point, Old Harbour Bay, Taylor Land, New Haven, and Riverton City.
Among its own preparations, Jamaica Red Cross members and volunteers over the weekend have been assembling care packages with personnel from the Ministry of Labour and Social Security to be distributed to those in need after Melissa’s passage.
Emphasizing that anticipatory and local action save lives, IFRC Secretary General Jagan Chapagain said on social media that the JRC was already supporting alerts and evacuations, and positioning relief for the most at-risk families.
“Melissa threatens communities still reeling from Hurricane Beryl, which devastated livelihoods just over a year ago,” he said.
The IFRC – which last week issued an imminent-disaster cash grant of 80,000 Swiss francs for Melissa to the JRC – “works to strengthen local-to-global capacities in risk reduction, early warning and early anticipatory action and preparedness so that the network can better manage the rising number of disasters.”
‘Every hour counts’
The imminent DREF enables the mobilization of shelter, hygiene and cleaning kits for 250 households, along with 500 tarpaulins, 750 blankets, and drinking water at local branches for distribution in shelters before landfall.
DREF Senior Officer Santiago Rodriguez said on social media that the imminent-disaster grant was issued less than 24 hours after first being requested from Jamaica.
“This highlights not only the importance of anticipatory action, but also the critical role of the DREF mechanism in enabling fast, localized humanitarian action when every hour counts,” he added.
With Haiti, the Dominican Republic, eastern Cuba, and other Caribbean nations also bracing for impact or near misses and National Societies working to prepare, “the urgency to act is clear”.
Climate Centre science lead Liz Stephens said Monday: “Having now intensified to a Category 5, slow-moving Hurricane Melissa has all the ingredients of a catastrophic storm, with a devastating storm-surge, extreme winds and unusually high rainfall accumulations.
“Communities in Jamaica will need to prepare for unimaginable impacts, and with climate change fuelling stronger storms with higher rainfall totals, this is a very stark reminder for other countries as to what may be in store for them.”
Melissa’s slow speed makes it very dangerous in terms of expected rainfall: Reuters news agency quotes Jamaican Information Minister Dana Morris Dixon as saying: “We’ve heard the rainfall numbers. They’re numbers we’ve never heard before.“
The Caribbean Disaster Emergency Management Agency was ready to provide assistance, and several international partners had already pledged support; all of the island’s 881 shelters were open.
Esther Pinnock, Communications Officer for Jamaica Red Cross, says: “We will also be collecting information on persons who may be stranded and making those connections with the necessary entities as we get such reports.
“I also want to be highlighting to the public that after the storm passes, we’re going to be talking about our Restoring Family Links service and how that can be accessed.”
The forecast position from the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration as of 08:00 US Eastern Time Monday, showing almost the entire island of Jamaica inside the cone of probability for Hurricane Melissa’s track, and thus all but certain of a historic direct hit. NOAA emphasizes that extremely damaging impacts are also likely either side of the cone. (Image: NOAA)