UNHCR: Three in four people uprooted by conflict live in countries facing high exposure to climate  hazards

By the Climate Centre

Many of the nearly 120 million people in the world currently uprooted by conflict and their hosts are “trapped in an increasingly vicious cycle” with climate extremes, according to a new report released yesterday by UNHCR to coincide with the COP meeting in Brazil.

It warns that climate shocks are undermining recovery and increasing humanitarian need and the danger of displacement being repeated.

“Whether it is floods sweeping South Sudan and Brazil, record-breaking heat in Kenya and Pakistan, or water shortages in Chad and Ethiopia, extreme weather is pushing already fragile communities to the brink,” the UN refugee agency said yesterday.

Nearly all current refugee settlements will face an unprecedented rise in hazardous heat, and the hottest 15 camps in the world – in Gambia, Eritrea, Ethiopia, Senegal and Mali – are projected to face some 200 days of dangerous heat stress a year by mid-century on current trends.

Filippo Grandi, UN High Commissioner for Refugees, said yesterday: “Around the world, extreme weather … is disrupting access to essential services, destroying homes and livelihoods, and forcing families – many who have already fled violence – to flee once more.

“These are people who have already endured immense loss, and now they face the same hardships and devastation again. They are among the hardest hit by severe droughts, deadly floods and record-breaking heatwaves, yet they have the fewest resources to recover.”

‘They cannot be left alone’

The Climate Centre was among the expert partner agencies for No Escape II: The Way Forward, which updates last year’s analysis with new insights and data, also including:

*1.2 million refugees returned home in early 2025, but half of them to climate-vulnerable areas.
*An estimated total of 250 million internal displacements have been caused by weather-related disasters in the past decade.
*More than half of refugee settlements in Africa are in high-stress areas.
*Since April 2023, nearly 1.3 million people fleeing the conflict in Sudan have sought refuge in South Sudan and Chad – two countries among the least equipped to cope with climate impacts.

Grandi added: “Funding cuts are severely limiting our ability to protect refugees and displaced families from the effects of extreme weather. If we want stability, we must invest where people are most at risk …
They cannot be left alone. This COP must deliver real action, not empty promises.”

UNHCR also stresses that solutions are possible if displaced and host communities are included in national climate plans, supported through targeted investment, and given a voice in decisions that affect their future.

The UN refugee agency says it is urging the international community represented at COP 30 to take decisive action and ensure that climate finance reaches those on the front lines.

The Climate centre was among nearly 30 expert organizations, research institutions, private sector actors and refugee-led organizations that UNHCR partnered with to produce this year’s report, which was launched at a press conference with Filippo Grandi in Belem yesterday.

Esneda Saavedra is an indigenous leader and the first female governor of the Yukpa people who live in a remote region on the border between Colombia and Venezuela and are threatened by deforestation, water contamination and conflict. She is “at the forefront of the fight to protect her community from forced displacement and environmental degradation,” says UNHCR, which used her picture in the new report No Escape II: The Way Forward. (Photo: Marina Calderon/UNHCR)