Study: Deadly floods in eastern Mexico highlight limitations of national climate data

By the Climate Centre

Mexico needs better data and a wider network of meteorological stations to understand how climate change is affecting the country, according to a rapid analysis by World Weather Attribution issued Wednesday.

The scientists were investigating the role of climate change in the deadly rainfall that hit Mexico’s Gulf Coast last month, causing lethal flash floods, but they say current models and observations “do not represent these events consistently in this region,” as is often the case in developing countries, and they could not come to a firm conclusion.

Among the study’s key points, the WWA team say the region is prone to flooding due to its geography and rapid urbanization, with rural and indigenous communities bearing the brunt; the impacts of the heavy rain and floods were also amplified by saturated soils from an unusually intense rainy season, including a reported record amount of rain in the capital, Mexico City.

“[The National Water Commission] and the National Meteorological Service need more funding to sustain, improve and increase our weather stations network,” says Ruth Cerezo-Mota, a climate scientist at Mexico’s Universidad Nacional Autonoma.

“Without data on the ground, it is very difficult to know how climate change is affecting us. Without knowing this baseline, we can’t determine if there are changes in precipitation due to climate change and to prepare for those changes.”

‘People-centred, risk-informed
urban development’

The new study was conducted by researchers and scientists from Mexico, Ireland, the Netherlands, the UK and the US.

The Climate Centre’s Karina Izquierdo said: “The floods in Mexico show how rapid and unplanned urbanization has increased risk in rural and indigenous areas and have left entire communities exposed.

”Beyond the physical destruction, the displacement of populations risks an irreplaceable loss of culture and livelihoods. Building resilience now requires a shift towards people-centred, risk-informed urban development.”

At COP 30 in Brazil Monday, the Climate Centre’s Director of Programmes briefed negotiators on WWA as part of the Earth Information Day plenary on ”the state of the climate, sustaining Earth observations and related initiatives”.

The Mexican Red Cross delivered scores of tons of humanitarian aid to the most severely affected areas of Veracruz state last month. The National Society was also able to field nearly 20 ambulances to assist with the response, and as many as 10,000 soldiers were drafted in by the authorities. (Photo: MRC via IFRC)