Forecast record warmth of Pacific reflects ongoing intensification of El Niño
By the Climate Centre
The World Meteorological Organization’s monthly seasonal climate update, issued today, says El Niño will continue to intensify ahead of its forecast peak in December, reflected by forecast record ocean warmth in the Pacific.
El Niño is likely to bring above-average temperatures to much of the world and alter rainfall patterns, increasing the risk of drought and floods in various places.
WMO Secretary-General Celeste Saulo said today: “El Niño is firmly established and strengthening rapidly. WMO forecasts indicate a near-100 per cent likelihood that it will persist through February 2027, potentially being one of the strongest since at least 1950.”
This virtual certainty stems from consensus across 13 national and international centres built on data from ocean buoys, satellites and radiosondes.
‘The ocean it’s drawing from is the warmest we’ve ever measured it. There is simply more heat available to release’
“El Niño doesn’t add new heat to the planet. It releases heat the ocean has already been storing beneath the surface, which is why a strong event so often becomes one of the hottest years measured, as with 2024,” Celeste Saulo explained.
“The ocean it’s drawing from is the warmest we’ve ever measured it. There is simply more heat available to release.”
The dominant “wet signal” in the update is above-normal rainfall across the central and eastern equatorial Pacific east of the International Date Line. Wetter-than-normal conditions are also more likely across the Horn of Africa, parts of Central Asia and coastal East Asia, the north of the Arabian Peninsula, parts of North America south of 45°N, and south-east South America.
A “dry signal” is forecast over both the western Pacific and the equatorial Atlantic Ocean, stretching across the South Pacific to the southern tip of South America, the Indian sub-continent, southern Central America and parts of the Caribbean, and north-west South America.
The WMO’s Global Seasonal Climate Update covers large-scale climate drivers, including El Niño and La Niña, the Indian Ocean Dipole, and the tropical Atlantic; it complements the specific El Niño/La Niña Update that is issued quarterly.
Photographed from above, this small Thai island resembles a fish while its green interior reveals another imaginative shape resembling a hippopotamus. The scene shows nature as both artist and storyteller, says its creator, generating unexpected forms where land and sea meet. The picture was used by the WMO to illustrate its latest monthly seasonal climate update that highlights the growing likelihood of a record El Niño. (File photo: Mansour Mohsen/WMO 2027 calendar competition)