‘Early warning and early action in conflict-affected settings’
By Bart van den Hurk, Scientific Director at Deltares and IPCC Working Group II Co-Chair
(This post appeared first on LinkedIn and has been edited slightly here for length and time references. Catalina Jaime’s PhD was completed under the auspices of the Princess Margriet research chair, which has been held since 2020 by the Netherlands Red Cross, the Climate Centre and the University of Twente – initially by former Climate Centre Director Maarten van Aalst and now Professor Marc van der Homberg, science lead of the Netherlands 510 project.)
Catalina Jaime this week completed a remarkable PhD study with a remarkable thesis defence (pictured). Her thesis, Early warning and early action in conflict-affected settings, reports on conditions where normally academic principles and rigorous scientific assessment are not the first concerns.
How to improve early-warning systems for people who are already affected by armed conflict? Or migrating out of a conflict zone?
It’s a courageous piece of work: not to surrender to a fatalist attitude – Who would notice a small improvement of an early warning effect in such a messy situation? – but instead insist on the added value it offers those who have almost nothing left to lose.
‘A great day’
The work comprised a paper on the success of global early warning systems in predicting extreme events in conflict areas; a systematic literature scan on the number of academic studies reporting not just on the hazards but also on the early warnings and possible responses; a study on the value (and trade-offs) of getting data into Open Street Map by local field surveys; and a paper on the functioning of weather stations near reported violent activities.
In an area where information is extremely scarce, this is a rich contribution to the field of research that should deliver the Early Warning for All aspiration of the World Meteorological Organization.
It was one of those experiences where I felt the human spirit in scientific work. It’s not only about the collection of evidence, the testing of hypotheses, the invention of neat new ideas. It’s also about asking yourself what matters to people, what can be improved, where to make an impact.
Supervised by Maarten van Aalst and Erin Coughlan de Perez, Catalina proved key in asking herself “So what?”, and very successfully connected her science work with her experience as the Climate Centre’s Head of Conflict and Climate team, incorporating Anticipatory Action in conflict settings.
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This thesis truly reflects the spirit of the Princess Margriet Chair, which I held when Catalina’s PhD track was initiated, aiming to make a difference with science for humanitarian action, writes Maarten van Aalst.
It’s also very appropriate that Professor van den Homberg, who currently holds the chair, was on the PhD committee during the defence.
I’m incredibly proud of Catalina’s ground-breaking work, which is already having an impact on policy and practice in the most vulnerable areas of the world.
Catalina has been amazing in not only combining detailed scientific analysis with a grounded humanitarian perspective, but also leveraging those insights through leadership of her own Climate Centre team for a wide range of partners and policy processes.
I was also very pleased to see her joining the IPCC author line-up for the seventh assessment of the global climate, alongside her Climate Centre colleagues Julie Arrighi and Roop Singh.
(Photo: University of Twente)